Tobias Adrian

Tobias Adrian (born 23 July 1971) is a German and American economist who has been Financial Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017.[2][3][4][5] He was previously employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was a Senior Vice President and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the wider economy of developments in capital markets. His work has covered the global financial crisis,[6] monetary policy transmission,[7] and the yield curve.[8]

Tobias Adrian
Born (1971-07-23) 23 July 1971
Kronberg, West Germany
Citizenship
  • American
  • German
Academic career
InstitutionIMF, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
FieldEconomics
Alma materLSE (M.Sc. 1998), MIT (Ph.D. 2003)
Academic
advisors		Olivier J. Blanchard and Stephen A. Ross[1]
Contributionsyield curve, CoVaR
Websitewww.tobiasadrian.com

Early life and education

Adrian was born in Kronberg, West Germany and attended Humboldtschule, Bad Homburg.[2][5] After studying at Goethe University Frankfurt, Paris Dauphine University, and the London School of Economics,[5] he studied for a Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, graduating in 2003. His doctoral thesis was entitled "Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing".[1]

Career

While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission, with Hyun-Song Shin.[7][9] He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and Arturo Estrella.[10] This is based on earlier work with Estrella that documented the forecasting power of the yield curve.[8] Adrian also worked on widely adopted yield curve models with Richard Crump and Emanuel Moench.[11]

Together with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of systemic risk, the CoVaR.[12] This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to stress test banks following the great recession.[13]

Adrian has published extensively on the topic of market liquidity, including policy effects and its procyclical behavior.[14][15][16][17] He has also written on the importance of the shadow banking system in capital markets, and its prominent role in the development of the financial crisis of 2007–2008.[18]

More recently, Adrian has studied how financial conditions present asymmetric risks to GDP growth with Domenico Giannone and Nina Boyarchenko.[19] This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions.[20] With Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions.[21][22][23][24] Their work establishes a novel economic foundation for climate finance.[22][23][24][25]

Selected works
  • Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (2010). "Liquidity and leverage". Journal of Financial Intermediation. Elsevier BV. 19 (3): 418–437. doi:10.1016/j.jfi.2008.12.002. ISSN 1042-9573.
  • Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam; Boesky, Hayley; Pozsar, Zoltan (2013). "Shadow Banking". Economic Policy Review. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 19 (2).
  • Adrian, Tobias; Brunnermeier, Markus K. (June 2016). "CoVaR". American Economic Review. American Economic Association. 106 (7): 1705–1741. doi:10.1257/aer.20120555. ISSN 0002-8282.
  • Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (April 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review. American Economic Association. 109 (4): 1263–1289. doi:10.1257/aer.20161923. ISSN 0002-8282. S2CID 32943592.

References
  1. Adrian, Tobias (2003). Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing. DSpace@MIT Home (Thesis). hdl:1721.1/17571. Retrieved 2 July 2021.
  2. GmbH, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (29 November 2016). "Tobias Adrian: Ein Deutsch-Amerikaner wird neuer IWF-Finanzmarktchef" [A German-American becomes the new head of financial markets at the IMF]. Faz.net (in German). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  3. "People: Tobias Adrian to replace Viñals at IMF". Central Banking. 30 November 2016. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  4. "Tobias Adrian sustituirá a José Viñals en el FMI" [Tobias Adrian will replace José Viñals at the IMF]. el Economista. 26 November 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  5. "Dr. Tobias Adrian". Goethe-Universität (in German). Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  6. "The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility". Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  7. Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (1 March 2009). "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy". American Economic Review. American Economic Association. 99 (2): 600–605. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.600. hdl:10419/60788. ISSN 0002-8282.
  8. Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo (1 April 2008). "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity". Economics Letters. 99 (2): 260–264. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2007.07.007. hdl:10419/60761. ISSN 0165-1765. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  9. Adrian, Tobias; Song Shin, Hyun (1 December 2009). Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics. Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3. pp. 601–650. doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00012-0. hdl:10419/60885. ISBN 9780444534705. ISSN 1573-4498. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  10. Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo; Shin, Hyun Song (23 April 2019). "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy". Financial Management. Wiley. 48 (3): 725–738. doi:10.1111/fima.12256. ISSN 0046-3892. S2CID 158109152.
  11. Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel (1 September 2013). "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions". Journal of Financial Economics. 110 (1): 110–138. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.04.009. hdl:10419/60737. ISSN 0304-405X. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  12. Adrian & Brunnermeier 2016.
  13. "The revolution within". The Economist. 16 May 2009. Retrieved 2 July 2021.
  14. Adrian & Shin 2010.
  15. Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2018). "Liquidity policies and systemic risk". Journal of Financial Intermediation. Elsevier BV. 35: 45–60. doi:10.1016/j.jfi.2017.08.005. hdl:10419/93660. ISSN 1042-9573.
  16. Adrian, Tobias; Kiff, John; Shin, Hyun Song (2018). "Liquidity, Leverage, and Regulation 10 Years After the Global Financial Crisis". Annual Review of Financial Economics. Annual Reviews. 10 (1): 1–24. doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023113. ISSN 1941-1367. S2CID 158419019.
  17. "Tobias Adrian". Google Scholar. Retrieved 19 July 2021.
  18. Adrian et al. 2013.
  19. Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (1 March 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review. American Economic Association. 109 (4): 1263–1289. doi:10.1257/aer.20161923. ISSN 0002-8282. S2CID 32943592.
  20. Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (22 March 2021). "Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics" (PDF). International Economic Review. Wiley. 62 (2): 861–886. doi:10.1111/iere.12501. hdl:10419/210755. ISSN 0020-6598. S2CID 234040176.
  21. Adrian, Tobias; Bolton, Patrick; Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa (1 June 2022). "The Great Carbon Arbitrage". International Monetary Fund. Working Paper No. 2022/107.
  22. IFC-IEA (21 June 2023). Scaling up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies (PDF). International Energy Agency & International Finance Corporation.
  23. Tett, Gillian (13 June 2022). "Killing coal: a new way to get investors involved". Financial Times.
  24. GFANZ (June 2023). "Financing the Managed Phaseout of Coal-Fired Power Plants in Asia Pacific" (PDF). Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
  25. Prasad, Ananthakrishnan (27 July 2022). "Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies". IMF eLibrary.
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