30th Saskatchewan general election

The 30th Saskatchewan general election will be held on or before October 28, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.[1]

30th Saskatchewan general election
On or before October 28, 2024
61 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Scott Moe Carla Beck Nadine Wilson
Party Saskatchewan New Democratic Saskatchewan United Party
Leader since January 27, 2018 June 26, 2022 November 30, 2022
Leader's seat Rosthern-Shellbrook Regina Lakeview Saskatchewan Rivers
Last election 48 seats, 60.67% 13 seats, 31.82% New party
Current seats 46 14 1
Seats needed Steady Increase17 Increase30
Riding map based on new boundaries
Incumbent Premier

Scott Moe
Saskatchewan


Background

Since 2010, the Legislative Assembly has had a fixed four-year term. According to the 2019 amendment to the Legislative Assembly Act, 2007, "the first general election after the coming into force of this subsection must be held on Monday, October 26, 2020".[2][3] Subsequent elections, must occur "on the last Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the last general election".[4] However, the act also provides that if the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the first Monday of the following April; in this case: April 7, 2025.[4] The fixed election law does not infringe on the Lieutenant Governor's right to dissolve the Legislative Assembly at an earlier date on the Premier's advice.

Legislative summary

Summary of the 29th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan

Party Leader Seats
2020 Current
Saskatchewan Scott Moe 4846
New Democratic Carla Beck 1314
Saskatchewan United Nadine Wilson –1
Total 6161

Timeline

2020

2021

2022

2023

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

Saskatchewan Party

New Democratic Party

Lost nomination election

Saskatchewan Party

Opinion polls
Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source SK Party NDP Green Progress Buffalo PC United Others Margin
of error		 Sample
size		 Polling method Lead
Insightrix The SKoop Oct 4–6, 2023 [p 1][p 2] 51% 45% — — — — — 4% 3.5% 801 Online 6%
Aug 10, 2023 By-elections were held in Regina Coronation Park, Regina Walsh Acres, and Lumsden-Morse.
July 19, 2023The Saskatchewan Liberal Party changes their party name to the Saskatchewan Progress Party.
Insightrix The SKoop July 11–14, 2023 [p 3][p 4] 45% 36% 2% 2% 2% 10% 3% 1% 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Insightrix The SKoop Apr 11–13, 2023 [p 5][p 6][p 7][p 8] 46% 37% 2% 3% 3% 6% 2% — 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Nov 30, 2022The Saskatchewan United Party becomes a registered party, and Nadine Wilson becomes the party's first MLA.
Sep 26, 2022A by-election was held in Saskatoon Meewasin.
June 26, 2022Carla Beck becomes leader of the NDP.
Angus Reid N/A Jun 07–13, 2022 [p 9][p 10] 57% 34% 1% 2% — — — 6% 4% 513 Online 23%
Angus Reid N/A Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 11][p 12] 54% 36% 2% 2% — — — 6% 4% 602 Online 18%
Research Co. N/A Feb 19–23, 2022 [p 13] 53% 37% 2% 1% 3% 2% — 1% 3.5% 808 Online 16%
Feb 18, 2022Ryan Meili announces his intention to step down as leader of the NDP.
Feb 15, 2022A by-election was held in Athabasca.
Angus Reid N/A Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 14][p 15] 48% 39% 1% 2% — — — 10% 5% 415 Online 9%
Angus Reid N/A Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021 [p 16] 52% 35% 1% 2% — — — 9% 2% 505 Online 17%
Angus Reid N/A Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 17] 57% 31% 3% 2% — — — 8% 4% 412 Online 26%
Leger Common Ground Mar 1–8, 2021 [p 18] 41.5% 36.3% 3.9% 6.2% 4.5% 7.3% — 0.2% N/A 802 Online 5.3%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 19] 58% 27% 3% 1% — — — 11% 1.4% 459 Online 29%
2020 general election Oct 24, 2020 — 60.7% 31.8% 2.3% 0.1% 2.6% 1.9% — 0.2% — — — 28.9%

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Residents say federal government most to blame for rising cost of living in Saskatchewan, according to new poll". The SKoop. October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  2. "The SKoop Polling – October 2023". Insightrix. October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  3. "The SKoop Polling: Cost of living, healthcare top issues for Saskatchewan voters; Saskatchewan Party best able to handle cost of living issues". The SKoop. July 26, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  4. "NEW POLLING: Cost of Living, Healthcare Top Issues for Sask. Voters". The SKoop. July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  5. Polling Canada [@CanadianPolling] (April 24, 2023). "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  6. "POLLING: Sask. Party Leads NDP, Sask. United Barely Registering Support". The SKoop. April 21, 2023. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  7. Richardson, Dale (April 21, 2023). "Sask. Party Leads NDP in New Poll, Sask. United Registers Barely Any Support". The SKoop. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  8. Salloum, Alec (April 24, 2023). "Recent poll shows NDP favoured over Sask. Party in Regina, Saskatoon". Regina Leader-Post. Postmedia Network. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  9. "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart". Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  10. "Full Report" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022.
  11. "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  12. "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022.
  13. "What is Saskatchewan?". Research Co. February 25, 2022. Archived from the original on February 25, 2022. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  14. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics" (PDF). Angus Reid. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
  15. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  16. "Provincial Spotlight" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  17. "Archived copy" (PDF). angusreid.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 10, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  18. "Viewpoint Saskatchewan: Vote Intentions & Party Identifications". Common Ground. Archived from the original on December 3, 2021. Retrieved December 3, 2021.
  19. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2021.

References
  1. Solomon, Michaela (September 29, 2020). "Saskatchewan's 29th general election begins as writ drop announced". regina.ctvnews.ca. CTV News. Archived from the original on May 9, 2021. Retrieved October 6, 2020.
  2. "Sask. gov't announces 2020 election date, tables election law changes". Global News. Archived from the original on August 20, 2020. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  3. "Saskatchewan adjusting 2020 provincial, municipal election dates". Regina Leader Post. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  4. "The Legislative Assembly Act, 2007" (PDF). The Queen's Printer (Saskatchewan). 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 21, 2018. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  5. Pearce, Nick (August 10, 2021). "NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigns from legislature to seek federal Liberal nomination". thestarphoenix. Archived from the original on January 27, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
  6. "Sask. Party MLA resigns from government caucus after 'misrepresenting her vaccination status'". CTV Regina. September 30, 2021. Archived from the original on March 16, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
  7. Williams, Ethan (February 16, 2022). "Sask. Party candidate takes Athabasca riding in byelection upset". CBC. Archived from the original on March 12, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
  8. Hunter, Adam (February 18, 2022). "Sask. NDP Leader Ryan Meili stepping down, will remain as leader until party chooses a successor". CBC. Archived from the original on March 6, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
  9. Canales-Lavigne, Moises (May 19, 2022). "Sask. NDP Leader Ryan Meili stepping down as Saskatoon Meewasin MLA". Global News. Retrieved March 16, 2022.
  10. Wallace-Scribner, M Tanner (June 26, 2022). "Carla Beck elected as new leader of Sask. NDP". 620ckrm. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  11. CBC News (December 1, 2022). "New Sask. United Party already has leader in legislature". CBC News. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  12. "Sask. Party MLA Mark Docherty steps down | Globalnews.ca".
  13. "Veteran Sask. Party MLA Lyle Stewart steps down for health reasons". CBC News. March 7, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  14. Wallace-Scribner, Tanner (March 28, 2023). "Regina Walsh Acres MLA Derek Meyers dies at the age of 45". CKRM. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  15. "Regina MLA Derek Meyers, 45, dies after cancer battle". CBC News. March 28, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  16. "Saskatchewan Liberal Party rebrands to Saskatchewan Progress Party after members vote to change name". CBC News. July 13, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  17. Dayal, Pratyush (August 10, 2023). "2 NDP wins in Regina byelections, Saskatchewan Party keeps Lumsden-Morse". CBC News.
  18. https://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/don-morgan-among-four-sask-party-mlas-not-seeking-reelection-in-2024
  19. https://www.sasktoday.ca/central/local-news/greg-ottenbreit-ken-francis-not-running-again-for-sask-party-7067580
  20. https://www.moosejawtoday.com/local-news/breaking-greg-lawrence-not-seeking-re-election-following-motorcycle-accident-7599981
  21. https://www.sasktoday.ca/provincial-news/jennifer-bowes-not-seeking-re-election-in-saskatoon-university-7101018
  22. https://www.cjme.com/2023/05/16/cumberland-mla-to-step-aside-from-provincial-politics-in-2024/
  23. https://www.saskparty.com/sean_wilson_canora_pelly_2024
  24. https://www.sasktoday.ca/central/canora-courier/dennis-running-for-sask-party-nomination-for-canorapelly-7048786
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