2015 Estonian parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections were held in Estonia on 1 March 2015. Advance voting was held between 19 and 25 February with a turnout of 33 percent.[1] The Reform Party remained the largest in the Riigikogu, winning 30 of the 101 seats. Its leader, Taavi Rõivas, remained Prime Minister. The newly elected 101 members of the 13th Riigikogu assembled at Toompea Castle in Tallinn within ten days of the election. Two political newcomers, the Free Party and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) crossed the threshold to enter the Riigikogu.

2015 Estonian parliamentary election
1 March 2015
101 seats in the Riigikogu
51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout64.23% (Increase0.70pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Taavi Rõivas Edgar Savisaar Sven Mikser
Party Reform Centre SDE
Last election 28.56%, 33 seats 23.32%, 26 seats 17.09%, 19 seats
Seats won 30 27 15
Seat change Decrease3 Increase1 Decrease4
Popular vote 158,970 142,458 87,189
Percentage 27.69% 24.81% 15.19%
Swing Decrease0.87pp Increase1.49pp Decrease1.90pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Urmas Reinsalu Andres Herkel Mart Helme
Party IRL Free EKRE
Last election 20.52%, 23 seats – 2.12%, 0 seats
Seats won 14 8 7
Seat change Decrease9 New Increase7
Popular vote 78,699 49,882 46,772
Percentage 13.71% 8.69% 8.15%
Swing Decrease6.81pp New Increase6.03pp
Results by electoral district
Prime Minister before election

Taavi Rõivas
Reform

 Prime Minister after election

Taavi Rõivas
Reform

In January 2015, the National Electoral Committee announced that ten political parties and eleven individual candidates had registered to take part in the 2015 parliamentary election. Individuals from contesting political parties also participated in multiple organised debates in January and February 2015.

Following this election, Reform successfully negotiated with the Triple Alliance parties SDE and IRL afterwards, forming a second government headed by Rõivas in April. This coalition fell after a vote of confidence in the following year, bringing about the first government to not feature Reform since 1999 due to the collapse of the cordon sanitaire around the Centre Party after it elected a new leader, ending the long-lasting leadership of Edgar Savisaar, who had been perceived as too Russophilic.[2][3]

Background

This was the first election since the resignation of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, who relinquished his position after holding the office for almost nine years, a record-length tenure for an Estonian head of government. Following the resignation, a new coalition comprising the Estonian Reform Party and the Estonian Social Democrats were authorized to form a new government on 24 March 2014 with 34-year-old Taavi Rõivas as the new Prime Minister. This replaced the prior coalition of the Estonian Reform Party and the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union.[4]

Electoral system

The 101 members of the Riigikogu were elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. The seats were allocated using a modified D'Hondt method. Parties had to pass a nationwide threshold of 5%, but if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeded or equalled the simple quota (obtained by dividing the number of valid votes cast in the electoral district by the number of mandates in the district), they were elected.

Seats by electoral district
# Electoral district Seats
1 Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn 9
2 Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn 12
3 Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn 8
4 Harju (without Tallinn) and Rapla counties 14
5 Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties 6
6 Lääne-Viru county 5
7 Ida-Viru county 7
8 Järva and Viljandi counties 7
9 Jõgeva and Tartu counties (without city of Tartu) 8
10 City of Tartu 8
11 Võru, Valga and Põlva counties 9
12 Pärnu county 8

Contesting parties
See also: List of political parties in Estonia

The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced that ten political parties and 11 individual candidates registered to take part in the 2015 parliamentary election. Their registration numbers and order were determined by a draw lot.

# Name Ideology Political position Leader Total candidates 2011 result
Votes (%) Seats
1
 People's Unity Civic nationalism Right-wing to far-right Kristiina Ojuland 35 did not exist
2
 Conservative People's Party Right-wing populism Right-wing to
far-right		 Mart Helme 125 2.1%
0 / 101
3
 Reform Party Classical liberalism Centre-right Taavi Rõivas 124 28.6%
33 / 101
4
 IRL Christian democracy Centre-right Urmas Reinsalu 125 20.5%
23 / 101
5
 Greens Green politics Centre-left Aleksander Laane 40 3.8%
0 / 101
6
 United Left Party Russian minority politics[5] Left-wing Valev Kald 25 2.1%[lower-alpha 1]
0 / 101
7
 Free Party Conservatism Centre-right Andres Herkel 125 did not exist
8
 Centre Party Plurinationalism Centre-left Edgar Savisaar 125 23.3%
26 / 101
9
 Social Democratic Party Social democracy Centre-left Sven Mikser 125 17.1%
19 / 101
10
 Independence Party Estonian nationalism Far-right Vello Leito 12 0.5%
0 / 101
—
 Individual candidates — 11 did not exist

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk IRL SDE Green EKRE EVA Others Lead
1 Mar 2015 Election results 27.7 24.8 13.7 15.2 0.9 8.1 8.7 0.9 2.9
23–26 Feb 2015 TNS Emor 26 22 16 19 - 6 10 1 4
Feb 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 22 27 16 18 - 6 6 5 5
11–18 Feb 2015 TNS Emor 23 22 14 20 2 9 9 1 1
Jan 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 22 26 15 16 - 6 6 9 4
Jan 2015 TNS Emor 25 22 15 18 2 5 8 4 3
Dec 2014 Turu-uuringute AS 26 27 15 19 3 4 1 4 1
Dec 2014 TNS Emor 32 23 16 21 2 2 1 3 9
Nov 2014 TNS Emor 29 22 18 22 4 2 2 1 7
Oct 2014 TNS Emor 27 27 16 19 3 3 2 3 0
Sep 2014 TNS Emor 27 26 18 23 3 2 Did not exist 1 1
Aug 2014 TNS Emor 29 25 15 26 1 4 0 4
Jul 2014 TNS Emor 31 24 16 24 1 3 1 7
Jun 2014 TNS Emor 31 24 14 25 2 2 2 7
May 2014 TNS Emor 29 24 15 27 3 2 2 2
Apr 2014 TNS Emor 25 22 19 28 1 3 2 3
26 March 2014Taavi Rõivas' cabinet is sworn in
Mar 2014 TNS Emor 24 27 16 26 2 2 3 1
Feb 2014 TNS Emor 21 27 19 26 2 2 3 1
Jan 2014 TNS Emor 24 25 22 23 2 2 2 1
Dec 2013 TNS Emor 19 32 20 23 3 2 1 9
Nov 2013 TNS Emor 18 29 22 23 2 3 3 7
Oct 2013 TNS Emor 22 29 20 20 1 4 4 7
Sep 2013 TNS Emor 21 29 18 23 4 3 2 6
Aug 2013 TNS Emor 20 26 14 25 5 4 6 1
Jul 2013 TNS Emor 24 28 14 26 3 2 3 2
Jun 2013 TNS Emor 24 28 14 26 2 3 3 2
May 2013 TNS Emor 24 26 15 26 2 3 4 0
Apr 2013 TNS Emor 25 24 13 27 3 3 5 2
Mar 2013 TNS Emor 25 26 15 27 3 1 3 1
Feb 2013 TNS Emor 23 26 17 26 4 2 2 0
Jan 2013 TNS Emor 20 28 16 27 5 2 2 1
Dec 2012 TNS Emor 22 24 18 28 3 1 4 4
Nov 2012 TNS Emor 26 23 17 25 3 1 5 1
Oct 2012 TNS Emor 32 25 13 22 4 1 3 7
Sep 2012 TNS Emor 33 24 11 24 4 0 4 9
Aug 2012 TNS Emor 39 20 13 20 3 1 4 19
Jul 2012 TNS Emor 34 22 15 25 2 1 4 1
Jun 2012 TNS Emor 31 23 14 24 4 0 4 7
May 2012 TNS Emor 30 19 17 29 3 0 2 1
Apr 2012 TNS Emor 27 25 13 29 3 0 3 2
Mar 2012 TNS Emor 29 23 12 30 2 3 1 1
Feb 2012 TNS Emor 28 26 14 22 5 4 1 2
Jan 2012 TNS Emor 30 27 13 19 4 3 4 3
Dec 2011 TNS Emor 33 22 16 22 4 2 1 11
Nov 2011 TNS Emor 31 23 16 24 4 2 1 7
Oct 2011 TNS Emor 32 20 16 23 4 2 3 9
Sep 2011 TNS Emor 31 24 16 22 4 2 1 7
Aug 2011 TNS Emor 29 21 18 24 3 3 2 5
Jul 2011 TNS Emor 31 21 15 24 3 2 4 7
Jun 2011 TNS Emor 33 22 13 21 5 2 4 7
May 2011 TNS Emor 33 20 17 22 4 1 3 11
Apr 2011 TNS Emor 31 22 19 19 5 1 3 9
6 Mar 2011 Election results 28.6 23.3 20.5 17.1 3.8 2.1 4.6 5.3

Results
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Estonian Reform Party158,97027.6930–3
Estonian Centre Party142,45824.8127+1
Social Democratic Party87,18915.1915–4
Pro Patria and Res Publica Union78,69913.7114–9
Estonian Free Party49,8828.698New
Conservative People's Party46,7728.157+7
Estonian Greens5,1930.9000
Party of People's Unity2,2890.400New
Estonian Independence Party1,0470.1800
Estonian United Left Party7640.130New
Independents8870.1500
Total574,150100.001010
Valid votes574,15099.35
Invalid/blank votes3,7600.65
Total votes577,910100.00
Registered voters/turnout899,79364.23
Source: VVK

Aftermath

The Reform Party started coalition talks with the Social Democrats, Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) and the Free Party.[6] After nearly three weeks of negotiations, the Free Party left the coalition talks due to disagreements with the Reform Party and the IRL.[7] The three remaining parties signed the coalition treaty on 8 April, and the cabinet took office on 9 April.[8]

See also

Notes
  1. Members of the party ran on the list of the People's Union of Estonia.

References
  1. Record number of e-votes given in ongoing elections ERR, 26 February 2015
  2. "Edgar Savisaar tahab kohtu kaudu Vene mõjuagendi mainest vabaneda". Eesti Päevaleht (in Estonian). Retrieved 2023-08-20.
  3. "ÜLEVAADE PILDIS: Edgar Savisaare elu võimaliku mõjuagendina". Delfi (in Estonian). Retrieved 2023-08-20.
  4. Estonian politics enters uncertain new era Archived 2014-08-19 at the Wayback Machine Dateline Baltics, 14 April 2014
  5. Lanko, Dmitry (2015). "Estonian Political Parties in the mid-2010s" (PDF). Open Access Repository.
  6. Coalition consultations begin with four parties in attendance ERR, 6 March 2015
  7. Coalition talks to continue between three parties, Free Party to go into opposition ERR, 23 March 2015
  8. "Otseülekanne: kolme erakonna koalitsioonileping saab allkirjad". Postimees. 8 April 2015. Retrieved 8 April 2015.
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