Demography of Wales

Population of Wales over time

The population of Wales doubled from 587,000 in 1801 to 1,163,000 in 1851 and had reached 2,421,000 by 1911. Most of the increase came in the coal mining districts especially Glamorganshire, which grew from 71,000 in 1801 to 232,000 in 1851 and 1,122,000 in 1911.[5] Part of this increase can be attributed to the demographic transition seen in most industrialising countries during the Industrial Revolution, as death-rates dropped and birth-rates remained steady. However, there was also a large-scale migration of people into Wales during the industrial revolution.

The 2021 census showed Wales' population to be 3,107,500, the highest in its history.[6] In 2011, 27 per cent (837,000) of the total population of Wales were not born in Wales,[7][8] including 636,000 people (21 per cent of the total population of Wales) who were born in England.[9] The main population and industrial areas are in south Wales, including the cities of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport and the nearby valleys, with another significant population in the north-east around Wrexham and Flintshire.

Population density of Wales in 2011

According to the 2001 census, 96 per cent of the population was White British, and 2.1 per cent non-white (mainly of British Asian origin).[10] Most non-white groups were concentrated in Cardiff, Newport and Swansea. Welsh Asian and African communities developed mainly through immigration after the Second World War.[11] In the early 21st century, parts of Wales saw an increased number of immigrants settle from recent EU accession countries such as Poland;[12] though a 2007 study showed a relatively low number of employed immigrant workers from the former Eastern Bloc countries in Wales compared to other regions of the United Kingdom.[13]

The 2001 UK census was criticised in Wales for not offering 'Welsh' as an option to describe respondents' national identity.[14] Partly to address this concern, the 2011 census asked the question "How would you describe your national identity?". Respondents were instructed to "tick all that apply" from a list of options that included Welsh. The outcome was that 57.5 per cent of Wales' population indicated their sole national identity to be Welsh; a further 7.1 per cent indicated it to be both Welsh and British. No Welsh national identity was indicated by 34.1 per cent. The proportion giving their sole national identity as British was 16.9 per cent, and another 9.4 per cent included British with another national identity. No British national identity was indicated by 73.7 per cent. 11.2 per cent indicated their sole national identity as English and another 2.6 per cent included English with another national identity.[15][16][17]

The 2011 census showed Wales to be less ethnically diverse than any region of 'England and Wales':[18] 93.2 per cent classed themselves as White British (including Welsh, English, Scottish or Northern Irish), 2.4 per cent as "Other White" (including Irish), 2.2 per cent as Asian (including Asian British), 1 per cent as Mixed, and 0.6 per cent as Black (African, Caribbean, or Black British). The lowest proportion of White British (80.3 per cent) was in Cardiff.[17][19]

In 2001, a quarter of the Welsh population were born outside Wales, mainly in England; about 3 per cent were born outside the UK. The proportion born in Wales varies across the country, with the highest percentages in the south Wales valleys and the lowest in mid Wales and parts of the north-east. In both Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil, 92 per cent were Welsh-born, compared with only 51 per cent and 56 per cent in the border counties of Flintshire and Powys.[20] Just over 1.75 million Americans report themselves to have Welsh ancestry, as did 440,965 Canadians in Canada's 2006 census.[21][22]

The total fertility rate (TFR) in Wales was 1.90 in 2011,[23] which is below the replacement rate of 2.1. The majority of births are to unmarried women (58 per cent of births in 2011 were outside marriage).[24] About one in 10 births (10.7 per cent) in 2011 were to foreign-born mothers, compared to 5.2 per cent in 2001.[25]

Largest cities or towns in Wales Office for National Statistics 2011 Census[26]
	Rank	Name	Council area	Pop.	Rank	Name	Council area	Pop.
Cardiff Swansea	1	Cardiff	City & County of Cardiff	335,145	11	Caerphilly	Caerphilly County Borough	41,402	Newport Wrexham
	2	Swansea	City & County of Swansea	239,000	12	Port Talbot	Neath Port Talbot	37,276
	3	Newport	Newport City	128,060	13	Pontypridd	Rhondda Cynon Taf	30,457
	4	Wrexham	Wrexham County Borough	61,603	14	Aberdare	Rhondda Cynon Taf	29,748
	5	Barry	Vale of Glamorgan	54,673	15	Colwyn Bay	Conwy County Borough	29,405
	6	Neath	Neath Port Talbot	50,658	16	Pontypool	Torfaen	28,334
	7	Cwmbran	Torfaen	46,915	17	Penarth	Vale of Glamorgan	27,226
	8	Bridgend	Bridgend County Borough	46,757	18	Rhyl	Denbighshire	25,149
	9	Llanelli	Carmarthenshire	43,878	19	Blackwood	Caerphilly County Borough	24,042
	10	Merthyr Tydfil	Merthyr Tydfil	43,820	20	Maesteg	Bridgend County Borough	18,888

Population growth between 2011 and 2021

  Less than -3%

  -0 - 3%

  +0 - 5%

  +5 - 10%

  More than +10%

[27]

(c) = Census results.

Current vital statistics

[28][29]

Period	Live births	Deaths	Natural increase
January - August 2022		23,390
January - August 2023		24,619
Difference		+1,229 (+5.25%)

According to the 2011 census 2.2 million (73%) of the usual residents were born in Wales, a reduction of two percent since 2001. In 2001, 590,000 (20%) of the population of Wales was born in England. By 2011, the proportion of English-born citizens of Wales had increased by one percent to 21%. In 2011, 27% (837,000) of the total population of Wales were born outside Wales, and of these immigrants 636,000 (76%) were born in England.[30]

Map showing the percentage of the population born in England according to the 2011 census.

Country of birth	2001[31]		2011[32]
	Number	%	Number	%
Wales	2,188,754	75.39%	2,226,005	72.66%
England	589,828	20.32%	636,266	20.77%
Scotland	24,389	0.84%	24,346	0.79%
Northern Ireland	7,851	0.27%	8,253	0.27%
UK not otherwise specified			715	0.02%
Republic of Ireland	12,718	0.44%	12,175	0.40%
Other  European Union Member Countries	23,694	0.82%	55,360	1.81%
Other  European Union Member Countries (joined pre 2001)			26,343	0.86%
Other  European Union Member Countries (joined post 2001)			29,017	0.95%
Other countries	55,851	1.92%	100,336	3.28%
Total	2,903,085	100.00%	3,063,456	100.00%

Below are the 5 largest foreign-born groups in Wales according to 2014 ONS estimates.[33]

Country of birth	Estimated population
	2013	2014	2015
Poland	20,000	22,000	23,000
Republic of Ireland	11,000	12,000	10,000
India	10,000	12,000	13,000
Germany	11,000	11,000	11,000
South Africa	7,000	6,000	6,000

Population pyramid from 2001 to 2020

Population pyramid in 2020

According to the 2011 census, some 563,000 of the population were aged 65 and over, an increase of 56,700 or one percent since 2001. As in 2001, six per cent (178,000) of the population in Wales were children under five, an increase of 11,300.[32]

Source: 2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group and sex, local authorities in the United Kingdom, Accessed 23 December 2012

Ethnic demography of Wales from 1981 - 2011

Ethnic makeup of Wales in single year age groups in 2021

Population pyramid of Wales by ethnicity in 2021

According to the 2011 census, 2.2 million (73%) of usual residents of Wales were born there, two percent less than in 2001. The change can be attributed to both international and internal migration. In 2001, 590,000 (20%) of the population of Wales was born in England. In 2011, this had increased by one percent.[32] Nearly 418,000 people identified themselves as Welsh in 2001. The 1991, 2001 and 2011 census estimated the following ethnic groups:

Ethnic demography of Wales

Ethnic group	Year
	1981 estimations[38]		1991[39][40]		2001[41]		2011[42]		2021[43]
	Population	%	Population	%	Population	%	Population	%	Population	%
White: Total	2,788,533	99.1%	2,793,522	98.5%	2,841,505	97.9%	2,928,253	95.6%	2,915,848	94.2%
White: British	–	–	–	–	2,786,605	96.0%	2,855,450	93.2%	2,814,427	90.9%
White: Irish	–	–	20,841	0.7%	17,689	0.6%	14,086	0.5%	13,214	0.4%
White: Irish Traveller/White Gypsy[note 1]	–	–	–	–	–	–	2,785	0.1%	3,550	0.1%
White: Roma	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1,843	0.1%
White: Other	–	–	–	–	37,211	1.3%	55,932	1.8%	82,994	2.7%
Asian or Asian British: Total	–	–	24,399	0.9%	31,715	1.1%	70,128	2.3%	89,028	3%
Asian or Asian British: Indian	–	–	6,384	0.2%	8,261	0.3%	17,256	0.6%	21,070	0.7%
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani	–	–	5,717	0.2%	8,287	0.3%	12,229	0.4%	17,534	0.6%
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi	–	–	3,820	0.1%	5,436	0.2%	10,687	0.3%	15,314	0.5%
Asian or Asian British: Chinese[note 2]	–	–	4,801	0.2%	6,267	0.2%	13,638	0.4%	14,454	0.5%
Asian or Asian British: Asian Other	–	–	3,677	0.1%	3,464	0.1%	16,318	0.5%	20,656	0.7%
Black or Black British: Total	–	–	9,492	0.3%	7,069	0.2%	18,276	0.6%	27,554	0.8%
Black or Black British: African	–	–	2,671	0.1%	3,727	0.1%	11,887	0.4%	19,907	0.6%
Black or Black British: Caribbean	–	–	3,348	0.1%	2,597	0.1%	3,809	0.1%	3,700	0.1%
Black or Black British: Other	–	–	3,473	0.1%	745	<0.1%	2,580	0.1%	3,947	0.1%
British Mixed: Total	–	–	–	–	17,661	0.7%	31,521	1.0%	48,598	1.6%
Mixed: White and Caribbean	–	–	–	–	5,996	0.2%	11,099	0.4%	13,732	0.4%
Mixed: White and African	–	–	–	–	2,413	0.1%	4,424	0.1%	8,068	0.3%
Mixed: White and Asian	–	–	–	–	5,001	0.2%	9,019	0.3%	14,035	0.5%
Mixed: Other Mixed	–	–	–	–	4,251	0.2%	6,979	0.2%	12,763	0.4%
Other: Total	–	–	7,660	0.3%	5,135	0.2%	15,278	0.5%	26,466	0.9%
Other: Arab[note 3]	–	–	–	–	–	–	9,615	0.3%	11,641	0.4%
Other: Any other ethnic group	–	–	7,660	0.3%	5,135	0.2%	5,663	0.2%	14,825	0.5%
Ethnic minority: Total	24,467	0.9%	41,551	1.5%	61,580	2.1%	135,203	4.4%	191,646	5.8%
Total:	2,813,000	100%	2,835,073	100%	2,903,085	100%	3,063,456	100%	3,107,494	100%

Notes for table above

Source: Census 2001 Key Statistics - Urban area summary results for local authorities KS06 Ethnic group, Retrieved 18 June 2013

Source: Census 2011: Ethnic group, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

Ethnicity of school pupils

White British school children in Wales

Ethnicity of school pupils within Wales

Ethnic group	School year[44]
	2008		2016		2022
	Population	%	Population	%	Population	%
White: Total	383,820	93.8%	362,290	92.2	365,231	90.3%
White: British	376,870	92.1%	351,145	89.4%	350,842	86.7%
White: Irish Traveller/White Gypsy	585		996		1,183	0.3%
White: Other	6365		10,149		13,206	3.3%
Asian or Asian British: Total	7,845	1.9%	9,905	2.5%	10,520	2.6%
Asian or Asian British: Indian	1345		2,056		2,641	0.7%
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani	2225		3,009		3,285	0.8%
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi	2300		3,188		3,304	0.8%
Asian or Asian British: Chinese	865		720		939	0.2%
Asian or Asian British: Asian Other	1110		932		1,290	0.3%
Black or Black British: Total	2,140	0.5%	3,355	0.9%	4,446	1.1%
Black or Black British: Caribbean	200		194		198	–
Black or Black British: African	1595		2,743		3,711	0.9%
Black or Black British: Other	345		418		537	0.1%
British Mixed: Total	6,715	1.6%	10,592	2.7%	14,775	3.7%
Mixed: White and Caribbean	1750		2,314		2,754	0.7%
Mixed: White and African	730		1,398		2,198	0.5%
Mixed: White and Asian	1605		2,351		3,011	0.7%
Mixed: Other Mixed	2630		4,529		6,812	1.7%
Other: Total	2530	0.6%	4,639	1.2%	6,059	1.5%
Other: Any other ethnic group	2530	0.6%			6,059	1.5%
Unknown or not stated	6245	1.5%	2,081	0.5%	2,511	0.6%
Total:	409,295	100%	392,862	100%	404,481	100%

According to the 2011 census, there was a decrease of 14 percentage points in the number of Welsh residents describing themselves as Christian since 2001, when it had been cited by 2.1 million (72%) residents. Christianity experienced a significant decrease in numbers between 2001 and 2011 despite population growth.

The second largest response group for this question in 2011 was those identifying no religion. This increased from 538,000 (19%) of residents in 2001 to 983,000 (32%) in 2011, a larger rise than in any region of England.[32]

• Based on pre-census 2011 sources. The largest single Christian denomination of Wales is Calvinist Methodism (Presbyterian Church of Wales), followed by the (Anglican) Church in Wales with 30% of the population, the Roman Catholic Church with 3% and the Congregationalist Union of Welsh Independents with 1% of the population.

The 2011 census collected information about English and Welsh language proficiency. In 2011, 2.9 million (97%) of residents, age three and over, spoke English or Welsh. In a further 18,000 households, at least one adult spoke English or Welsh. In 22,000 households, no resident spoke either language. There were 562,000 (19%) residents, over age three, proficient in at least speaking the Welsh language. This was a reduction of approximately 2 per cent compared to 2001, though the method of analysis differed between the two censuses. There was also a 2% increase in those, over three years of age, who had no Welsh language skills.[32]

The proportion of respondents in the 2011 census who said they could speak Welsh.

Source: 2011 Census: KS207WA Welsh language skills, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

The most common main languages spoken in Wales according to the 2011 census are shown below.[48]

In 2011 those who were married were still the largest marriage / civil partnership status group in Wales for residents aged 16 and over though since 2001 this group has decreased by 37,000 (over 5%). In contrast, single people (i.e. those who have never married or been part of a same sex partnership), have increased by 190,000 (6%) in the ten-year period. Civil partnerships, which were given legal status in 2005, appear for the first time in the census results. The number of widows, widowers and surviving partners is 20,000 lower than in 2001. The final groups, relating to separation and divorce / legal dissolution of civil partnerships, have both seen an increase in both numerical and relative terms since 2001.[32]

Table key

• Single = Single never married or registered a same-sex civil partnership)
• Divorced / legally dissolved = divorced or formerly in a same-sex civil partnership which is now legally dissolved
• Widowed or surviving partner = Widowed or surviving partner from a same-sex civil partnership
• Separated = Separated (but still legally married or still legally in a same-sex civil partnership)
• Civil partnership = In a registered same-sex civil partnership

Source: 2011 Census: KS103EW Marital and civil partnership status, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

Out of the armed services, the Army has the largest presence in Wales, with over 1,400 personnel based there. As of 2019, there were 3,230 military and civilian personnel based in Wales.[49]

In the 2021 census, around 115,000 people in Wales reported that they had previously served in the armed forces, around 4.5% of usual residents in Wales aged 16 years or older.[50]

• Population density (2006): 143 people per square kilometre[51]
• Fertility rate: 1.90 (2007)[52]
• In 2010, 58% of births were outside marriage in Wales.[53] Currently, Wales and Scotland are the only countries of the United Kingdom where the majority of births are outside of marriage (51.3% of births in Scotland in 2012 were outside of marriage).[54] Wales (along with Scotland) also had the highest death rate (10.9 per thousand) in 2005.[55]

• Demography of the United Kingdom
• Demography of England
• Demography of Scotland
• Demography of Northern Ireland